Pandemic Preparedness

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This page collects observations, interpretations, and consequences for action about Preparedness for SARS-CoV2. Please observe the structure of the page, when you add your content. Please use references where possible. Remember to find the relevant page. For example, if your observation is about Sources, please use that page, instead of posting your content here.

What is already known

  • The ability to limit and control local #COVID19 transmission after importation depends on the application and execution of strict measures of detection, prevention, and control. These measures include heightened surveillance and rapid identification of suspected cases, followed by patient transfer and isolation, rapid diagnosis, tracing, and follow-up of potential contacts.[1]
  • The application of such a vast technical and operational set of interventions depends on each country’s public health and laboratory infrastructures and resources. [1]

Vulnerable Countries: African Continent

The IHR Monitoring and Evaluation Framework includes a mandatory self-reporting of capacity, the so-called State Party Self-Assessment Annual Reporting (SPAR). The SPAR was designed to quantify the functional capacity of countries, but does not account for indirect factors that might compromise the control of emerging epidemics (e.g. political conditions, socioeconomic, environmental, and demographic factors). The Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index (IDVI) is a synthetic metric of vulnerability to account for these factors. [1]


  • Countries with the highest importation risk (ie, Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa) have moderate to high capacity to respond to outbreaks. Countries at moderate risk (ie, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana,

and Kenya) have a variable capacity and high vulnerability. [1]

  • Gilbert et al have mapped the SPAR and IDVI scores of African countries to the #COVID19 importation risk, and came to the matrix below: [1]


Analysis and interpretation

Consequences for action


  1. 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 Gilbert, M., Pullano, G., Pinotti, F., Valdano, E., Poletto, C., Boëlle, P. Y., ... & Gutierrez, B. (2020). Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study. The Lancet, 395(10227), 871-877.