Early Warning and Surveillance

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This page collects observations, interpretations, and consequences for action about Early Warning of SARS-CoV2. Please observe the structure of the page, when you add your content. Please use references where possible. Remember to find the relevant page. For example, if your observation is about Sources, please use that page, instead of posting your content here.

What is already known

Epidemic Intelligence

In the 2020 COVID19 pandemic we see an unprecedented level of rapid scientific communication on early and preliminary study results. This benefits epidemic intelligence, as a source of information for threat assessments.

Observations

  • On 25 January, Chinese researchers published a preliminary risk analysis of 2019 novel coronavirus spread within and beyond China. [1]
    • This study has been cited quite early by academic groups of modellers[2] [3] [4] [5] and public health agencies [6]
    • By the time this report was published, the first cases of local #COVID19 transmission in Europe had already been reported.

Analysis and interpretation

Consequences for action

References

  1. ↑ Lai, S., Bogoch, I. I., Watts, A., Khan, K., Li, Z., & Tatem, A. (2020). Preliminary risk analysis of 2019 novel coronavirus spread within and beyond China. 2020-02-03]. https://www. worldpop. org/events/china.
  2. ↑ Pullano, G., Pinotti, F., Valdano, E., Boëlle, P. Y., Poletto, C., & Colizza, V. (2020). Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) early-stage importation risk to Europe, January 2020. Eurosurveillance, 25(4).
  3. ↑ Kucharski, A. J., Russell, T. W., Diamond, C., Liu, Y., Edmunds, J., Funk, S., ... & Davies, N. (2020). Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases.
  4. ↑ Gilbert, M., Pullano, G., Pinotti, F., Valdano, E., Poletto, C., Boelle, P. Y., ... & Gutierrez, B. (2020). Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against introductions of 2019-nCoV. medRxiv.
  5. ↑ Gilbert, M., Pullano, G., Pinotti, F., Valdano, E., Poletto, C., Boëlle, P. Y., ... & Gutierrez, B. (2020). Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study. The Lancet, 395(10227), 871-877.
  6. ↑ Reusken, C. B., Broberg, E. K., Haagmans, B., Meijer, A., Corman, V. M., Papa, A., ... & Leitmeyer, K. (2020). Laboratory readiness and response for novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in expert laboratories in 30 EU/EEA countries, January 2020. Eurosurveillance, 25(6).
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